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Everything You Know is Wrong - Part 1
by Irv Goldfarb
A very twisted comedy group known as Firesign Theatre released an album around 1972 that they paradoxically titled Everything You Know Is Wrong!
Since that time I have come to adopt this catch-all phrase as my personal daily mantra. It is an intonation that helps shed new perspective on whatever obstacles in daily life I happen to come up against. I also believe that no phrase has ever fit a situation more closely than this particular one fits the unpredictable world of sports betting.
Obviously, if you are reading this article, you’re seeking a little advice in order to help you more intelligently place your bets on pro sporting events. You may not be having any trouble currently. Perhaps you’re simply seeking that ever-elusive tip that can help during times of confusion. Good enough!
Just make sure to keep our opening statement in mind: “Everything you know is wrong!” We’ll build off this crucial postulation as we progress.
As it pertains to our situation, “Everything You Know Is Wrong!” simply means that many perceptions you may currently hold concerning a particular team, game, or match-up will, more often than not, turn out to be of no help whatsoever.
I first discovered this phenomenon during Super Bowl XXIV, when, after having convinced myself that the Denver Broncos were finally going to cover a championship game, I watched the line on San Francisco drop by a half-point, and switched my bet to the other side at the very last minute. I figured any time I’m offered the best team in football at a lower price than originally advertised; I’d be a damn fool not to grab it!
When the ’Niners ultimately trashed the hapless Broncos, sending them to their third Super Bowl defeat in four years, I was a surprised winner, and the thought began to dawn on my clouded brain that oftentimes research, yardage gained, scoring differential, and weather conditions have a lot less to do with who covers a game than what happens to a betting line during the hours before the game begins.
All it took was watching the line move on Super Bowl XXIV for me to swear off wagering “with my head or my heart” forevermore!
Thus was borne “The Theory!”
The Theory:
(Okay, I’m not trying to pick up a Pulitzer Prize for creative terminology here, so “The Theory” will have to do for now.) As most seasoned sports bettors are aware, every bookmaker adjusts his line in relation to which way the wagering is headed. We have all heard the very true axiom that bookmakers really don’t care who wins any given game, as long as there are equal amounts wagered on both sides.
So, how exactly can watching what Las Vegas does with their lines help us make more intelligent choices when picking a game?
The Theory is simply based on this: if they (‘they’ usually meaning Vegas, the bookie, your man) want to give you a bargain, I’m here to tell you to step right up and take it! In the world of sports wagering, a bargain is often just that: an item that is simply on sale!
Hence, The Theory works this way: get the opening line, as usual, out of your morning paper. Then, when you call in for the final numbers, copy them down right next to the old ones. And yes, I realize that you hated it in high school, but now it’s time for us to do some good, old-fashioned mathematics.
In the game where the line has taken the biggest drop, play the favorite.
In the game where the line takes the biggest jump, take the underdog.
That’s it!
Well, that’s not actually all there is to it, but it basically sets our tone. And after playing with this new toy for a bit, I asked myself, “I wonder if this thing works with small linemoves as well. Would a jump or drop of just half-a-point affect anything?”
In actuality, this would be a bargain, too — if the Rams were a good play at 11, for instance, they didn’t suddenly become a terrible one at 11½; the line didn’t take a prohibitive move, so why not stay with them?
Hence the second half of The Theory goes like this:
In the game with the smallest upward jump, play the favorite.
Conversely, in the game with the smallest drop, take the ’dog. (I can’t fully explain the reasoning behind this last one — it just seemed to follow logically, so I gave it a try.)
And should two or more games make the same line move, toss those games out! This will leave us with anywhere from one to four games on any given day, an optimum amount to provide for an interesting Sunday afternoon.
Now, I realize this all must sound confusing, so let’s experiment on a typical NFL Sunday, Week Nine from a few seasons ago:
| Morning Line (home team in bold) |
| Dallas |
11 |
Atlanta |
| Detroit |
1 ½ |
Green Bay |
| Indianapolis |
10 ½ |
NY Jets |
| Baltimore |
11 |
Cincinnati |
| St. Louis |
8 ½ |
Philadelphia |
| Jacksonville |
10 |
Pittsburgh |
| New England |
7 ½ |
Carolina |
| Miami |
7 |
Buffalo |
| San Francisco |
14 |
New Orleans |
| Seattle |
4 ½ |
Arizona |
| Tennessee |
Pick |
Tampa Bay |
| Washington |
3 |
NY Giants |
(The remaining teams had a bye; the Bears and Vikings played on Monday night.)
So, we call our friendly neighborhood line-maker, and he gives us the latest numbers, which we dutifully record. Subsequently, the only line moves we notice are these:
| Dallas |
11 ½ |
Atlanta |
| Baltimore |
10 ½ |
Cincinnati |
| Miami |
7 ½ |
Buffalo |
| Jacksonville |
9 |
Pittsburgh |
There are never a lot of drastic line moves in the NFL, which is perfect for The Theory, so let’s see what it shows us this week.
First, we notice that Miami and Dallas have bothjumped half-a-point — but they cancel each other out, so we’ll toss ’em.
This leaves us the Baltimore Ravens, who have dipped half a point, visiting the lowly Bengals — that’s the smallest drop, so we’ll play the underdog. Meanwhile the Jacksonville Jaguars have moved down a whole point, as they host the plummeting Pittsburgh Steelers. Therefore, the Jags become our bargain play.
So, to review: we have the Jags giving nine and (holding our noses) the Bengals getting the 10½.
Upon picking up Monday’s sports section, we see the following has occurred:
| Baltimore 28 |
Cincinnati 26 |
| Jacksonville 24 |
Pittsburgh 7 |
How about that! Two winners, one of which I, on first appearances, would never have played — those “lowly” Bengals!
OK, now let’s move ahead one week and outline a situation that is just a bit different, but affords perhaps an even stronger play.
On the following Sunday, the only moves on the board show us this:
| Open |
Final |
| Detroit |
3 |
3 ½ |
Chicago |
| Minnesota |
6 ½ |
5 |
New Orleans |
| Dallas |
8 |
8 ½ |
Arizona |
As we see, both the Lions and the Cowboys have moved up half a point. They were the only games to go up, but since they both moved by the same margin, we toss them out.
This leaves the only other move in Week 11 as being the Minnesota Vikings, dropping from minus 6½, all the way down to 5-point favorites, hosting the New Orleans Saints. In this case, not only would I advise taking the favored Horns due to the huge drop, but also I would double my bet!
Why? Because I have found that with The Theory, when one and only one game goes down, lay the wood! Conversely, when only one team goes up, grab the underdog!
Now based on everything we know, that sounds backwards, doesn’t it? Haven’t we always been taught that when the line drops, they are trying to suck us into taking the better team? And that a drastic line jump means that all the smart money is going to the favorite? Perhaps, and then again, perhaps everything you’ve ever learned about sports betting really is wrong!
Once again, my favorite part of The Theory is that it never, ever takes into account injuries, recent performances, field goal percentage, or, even more damaging, whom we think is going to win the game!
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